Concawe: Sustainable biofeedstock supply chains for advanced biofuels in Europe towards 2050 | 2025

Background

Advanced biofuels are expected to play a key role in the decarbonisation of the European transport sector, particularly in hard-to-abate segments such as aviation, maritime transport, and heavy-duty road vehicles. To support the EU’s climate neutrality objectives by 2050, large-scale deployment of sustainable biofeedstocks will be required, along with efficient, cost-effective supply chains and biorefining infrastructure. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding the most optimal supply chain strategies for the large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels.

This report, commissioned by Concawe in collaboration with Utrecht University and TNO, presents a comprehensive, cost-optimised analysis of sustainable biofeedstock supply chains for advanced biofuel production across the EU-27 + UK for 2030 and 2050.

The study focuses on the main lignocellulosic feedstocks listed under Annex IX of the Renewable Energy Directive. It applies a spatially explicit supply chain optimisation model (based on Mixed-Integer Linear Programming), which integrates high-resolution biomass availability data, geospatial transport modelling, and spatially explicit information on EU industrial and transport infrastructure. The modelling framework also incorporates techno-economic data for two representative conversion process technologies, Gasification and Fischer–Tropsch (GFT) and Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL), evaluated under centralised and decentralised configurations.

By exploring a range of scenarios for biomass availability, advanced biofuel demand, and industrial integration options, the study addresses the following key questions:

1. What are the optimal supply chain configurations (centralised vs. decentralised) and main cost drivers for advanced biofuel supply chains in Europe?
2. How do geography and existing infrastructure influence supply chain economics?
3. In what ways do technology selection and economies of scale affect total production costs?

Main takeaways

• The study provides an in-depth exploration of biomass-to-biofuel supply chain strategies for advanced biofuel deployment in 2030 and 2050 in the EU27+UK.
• It is focused on Annex IX A type of feedstocks, considering the supply constraints of oleochemical feedstocks included in Annex IX B to scale up after 2030 and that these types of feedstock use different logistics.
• It combines detailed spatially explicit mapping of feedstock supply in the EU27+UK with intermodal transport infrastructure and possible locations with industrial clustering to produce advanced biofuels.
• The results highlight key trade-offs between economies of scale and decentralised biorefineries, the role of different technology pathways, and the geographic and infrastructural factors shaping the optimal system layout.

Follow up

• Next to supply chain cost, also the environmental performance should be evaluated, starting with life cycle GHG emissions.
• Many other (industrial) location factors that were not included, such as access to (low-cost green) hydrogen, CO­₂ utilization/storage, could also play a pivotal role in shaping the rollout of advanced biofuels, For example, to produce bioelectrofuels (see for example in Sweden: Pettersson and Axelsson 2025).
• Due to modeling constraints, the study was limited to thermochemical conversion via gasification & Fischer-Tropsch and HTL followed by upgrading. Many other pathways could play a role, including ethanol (and ATJ), DME, pyrolysis, etc).

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